College admissions news: Week of September 28th

The college admissions news that matters to families

It’s the economy, stupid

College administrators are engaging in needless hand-wringing about AI.

John B. King Jr., chancellor of The State University of New York, spoke about the pressure on colleges to demonstrate their value as AI presumably guts entry-level employment.

The story goes something like this: as artificial intelligence takes over the mundane tasks formerly reserved for entry-level employees, newly minted college graduates are having trouble finding a foothold in the labor market.

We’re not buying it. Stanford Digital Economy Lab made a similar argument about AI displacement over a year ago, only to walk back its juiciest claim: that companies stopped hiring entry-level employees when ChatGPT arrived in 2023.

College graduates are struggling in our current labor market, but for reasons unrelated to AI. If artificial intelligence were destroying entry-level jobs, we’d see an accompanying compression in wages, not just a retreat in hiring.

The real culprit? Lackluster job creation. When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022, new jobs evaporated. The hiring boom following the Great Resignation has become the Big Stay: workers clinging to their jobs instead of switching. And recent college graduates are most exposed to this pullback.

What families need to know

The labor market is bad, or at least not good right now. This has led many otherwise level-headed experts to question the value of a college degree. But every economic slump, however minor, raises the same question: Is college worth it?

The answer is a resounding yes. College graduates earn 66% more per week and 84% more per year than those with only a high school diploma. Despite a shaky labor market, a college degree remains the price of admission for the best jobs. The economy will eventually swing back in favor of employees, and college grads will find jobs as they always have.

Back to school

Some good news for schools staring down the enrollment cliff: the number of high school seniors immediately entering college rose, according to data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Among seniors at low-poverty schools, college enrollment increased from 73.1% last year to 73.9%. The same was true at high-poverty schools, where high school seniors enrolled at 51.2% compared to 50.8% the year before.

While these aren’t staggering increases, persistence rates — the number of students continuing in college after freshman year — also climbed.

College enrollment was up regardless of where students attended high school. Urban schools saw the biggest increase — from 65.2% in 2024 to 67.1% in 2025 — while suburban and rural high schoolers also enrolled at a higher clip.

What this means for families

If it seems like getting into college was tougher last fall, it wasn’t just your imagination. With a larger number of quality students, especially those from low-poverty suburban schools, submitting applications, many colleges can still be choosy about whom they let in.

Yale plays it close to the chest

Yale will no longer offer competitive applicants so-called “likely letters” to increase its yield. Elite universities use these missives to give regular-round applicants early notice that they’re likely to be admitted.

Yale stopped the practice because it didn’t improve yield, according to university sources. The school is considering other ways to attract the best candidates, including a portal to connect with current undergrads. Surveys have found students are more likely to enroll when they get to know their fellow Yalies.

Likely letters were primarily a tool for top students in Engineering and Science. Going forward, these students will have to wait for Yale’s decision, like the plebs in Humanities.

What this means for families

Without likely letters, students trying to figure out if they’re Yale material will have to apply Early Action, which comes with its downsides.

Restrictive Early Action means you can’t apply to other schools, and students should consider this tradeoff, thinking about their application readiness and whether they’re truly prepared for Yale’s competitive admissions.